Q4-2025 Consensus Report — Password Required

Sell-Side Consensus · February 2026

eToro Group (ETOR)
Post Q4-2025 Consensus

15 Analysts. One Clear Signal.

Compiled from 15 sell-side research reports following Q4-2025 earnings

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At a Glance
$0M
Revenue
$0M
Adj. EBITDA
0%
EBITDA Margin
0M
Funded Accounts
$0B
AUA
0
Analysts
Key Analyst Takeaways
01

Diversification Proves Critical

Multi-asset strategy delivered a solid top-line beat. Not just a "crypto shop" — ECC revenue grew 45% Y/Y, pivoting to capture record flows in commodities and equities, more than offsetting crypto weakness (-72% Y/Y).

02

Focus on Growth with Marketing

Management hiking marketing spend to 25% of net contribution — an "offensive" move backed by accretive cohort data. Focus on growth to drive faster acceleration in funded accounts and AUA.

03

January Velocity

January ECC trades surged 55% Y/Y and 66% M/M — user engagement remains sticky even when crypto volatility dampens sentiment.

04

Valuation Disconnect

Trading at ~6x 2026E EBITDA vs US peers at ~19x implies market pricing in zero growth, ignoring profitable diversification.

Bulls vs Bears

Bullish

"4Q25 highlighted the benefits of ETOR's diversified model"
— Cantor Fitzgerald
"eToro's differentiation is not a single product, it's a compounding platform advantage… built to capture the 'flow of capital in motion'"
— Citizens JMP
  • Resilient model: pivoted to commodities/equities to offset crypto
  • Capital return: $100M share repurchase, $1B+ cash

Cautious

"Investors will demand more evidence of sustainable growth"
— UBS
"Skeptical of ability to scale AI without scaling expenses"
— FT Partners
  • Crypto take-rate dropped to ~70bps (vs 100bps)
  • Marketing spend concerns on near-term margins
  • Competition from Robinhood, Schwab in US
What Analysts Want to See

🚀 Lean into Marketing Ramp

Growth over profitability. Accretive cohort data supports aggressive customer acquisition spend.

🌍 Execute US Roadmap

Win Europe first, then scale the US opportunity. Regulatory clarity is key.

₿ Normalize Crypto Expectations

De-risk the narrative — crypto is a tailwind, not the core thesis.

🎯 M&A Execution

$1B+ cash for disciplined acquisitions. Bolt-on targets in wealth management and payments.

💰 Deploy Dry Powder

Buybacks for EPS accretion. Share repurchase signals management confidence.

🤖 Monetize App Store & AI

Tori, Base44, subscription models — new revenue streams from platform ecosystem.

Near-Term Consensus
MetricConsensusRangeDistribution
Revenue$230M$215 – $249M
Adj. EBITDA$87M$73 – $102M
Net Income$63M$52 – $76M
Adj. EPS$0.69$0.60 – $0.83
Funded Accounts3.91M
AUA$19.0B
FY 2026 Consensus
MetricConsensusRange
Revenue$937M$868 – $1,009M
Adj. EBITDA$344M$289 – $406M
Net Income$248M$216 – $293M
Adj. EPS$2.70$2.42 – $3.20
Funded Accounts4.18M
AUA$22.0B
FY 2027 Outlook
MetricConsensusRange
Revenue$1,051M$984 – $1,199M
Adj. EBITDA$401M$336 – $490M
Net Income$295M$255 – $371M
Adj. EPS$3.17$2.65 – $4.00
Funded Accounts4.59M
AUA$27.5B
Q1-2026E Revenue Mix
ECC
$119M
52%
Net Interest
$54M
23%
Crypto
$25M
11%
eToro Money
$26M
11%
Subs & Other
$4M
2%
Market Snapshot
$31.18
Current Price (Feb 20)
$55
Consensus Target
+76%
Implied Upside
$36–$90
Price Target Range
$24.74 (52w Low)$79.96 (52w High)
▲ Current $31.18
Margins & Efficiency
38%
Q1-26E
EBITDA Margin
36%
FY 2026E
EBITDA Margin
37%
FY 2027E
EBITDA Margin
~27%
Across Periods
Net Income Margin
Low Single-Digit
Non-Marketing OpEx
Growth Rate
15 Analyst Firms